I attach a notebook with the simplest version of the model that needs to be updated but is fully functional.

Looking at the logistic model, early on in the epidemic there is little evidence that quarantine is working, until it fully kicks in, then control should be rapid.

And at the outset there is no pattern to the daily rates--they could be fit to any model, The blue dots are the course of daily rates predicted by the logistic model using all the orange dots for the fit.

I appreciate any comment or feedback :-). Watch Wolfram Language video lessons, discuss with experts, then earn certifications.

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The population of South Korea is over 50 million.

Here, we use the "Basic" level: As more information becomes available regarding COVID-19, we urge you to take advantage of Wolfram Community’s ever-expanding coronavirus resource hub. I am looking for resources that would help us determine if the case numbers we see reflect true cases, or are at this point mostly bottlenecked by testing capacity. We invite people in the community to contribute to making more data surrounding this topic computable. I do know that people have been tested in areas with no confirmed cases.

Enable JavaScript to interact with content and submit forms on Wolfram websites. I've just submitted a 3D modeling approach to the SARS-CoV-2 virus here: While all the initial major outbreaks in the US were in major cities there have been lots of news stories about outbreaks in rural areas, especially around meat processing plants.

Pandemic Data for Novel Coronavirus COVID-19, https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/resourcesystem/published/DataRepository/resources/Epidemic-Data-for-Novel-Coronavirus-COVID-19, Genetic Sequences for the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus, https://datarepository.wolframcloud.com/resources/Genetic-Sequences-for-the-SARS-CoV-2-Coronavirus, Patient Medical Data for Novel Coronavirus COVID-19, https://datarepository.wolframcloud.com/resources/Patient-Medical-Data-for-Novel-Coronavirus-COVID-19, COVID-19 Hospital Resource Use Projections, https://datarepository.wolframcloud.com/resources/COVID-19-Hospital-Resource-Use-Projections, https://datarepository.wolframcloud.com/resources/OECD-Data-Hospital-Beds-Per-Country, https://datarepository.wolframcloud.com/resources/Hospital-Beds-Per-US-State.

Check the "Computational Publications" section in the head post above. This builds on work from a prior post that works with an estimate of the logarithmic derivative of tested-positive counts as a function of time. Could someone please share with me (notebook?) With effective quarantine new cases should stop within the few incubation periods it takes to trace the contacts. Microsoft In addition to using a only straightforward differential equation, it requires but few hypotheses and no fitting of parameters (all values come from existing data). The preeminent environment for any technical workflows.
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Relevant epidemic datasets Folks have presented computations comparing the spread in different countries, analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 genome and explaining mathematical models for tracking epidemics.